Your Forecast Isn’t Wrong. It’s Harmful.

Most CROs struggle with forecasting—not because they lack data, discipline, or experience, but because the tools they’re given optimize for forecast accuracy. That goal conflicts with the CRO’s real job: maximizing sales. You can’t do both.

Despite modern CRMs and SalesTech stacks, forecasting in most organizations still relies on rollups—summing up deals by category or sales stage. Execution then focuses on delivering the most certain deals. This demands regular forecast reviews and pipeline scrubbing, and creates a stream of myopic forecasts. 

Yet problems recur: late-quarter surprises (sometimes positive), and boards that quietly discount the number they’re shown. When the number is missed, trust erodes—not because the team didn’t work hard, but because expectations and risk weren't quantified.

Rollups push teams toward safe numbers, not better outcomes. They hide uncertainty. AI forecasts widen the view, but still don’t show risk—or how to improve results.

CIO Review invited us to contribute a feature article on why most sales forecasting fails—and what forward-thinking revenue leaders are doing differently.

The article explores several ideas CROs are increasingly embracing:

• Why rollups are unreliable indicators of total sales

• Why delivering on “Commit” deals optimizes for safety, not maximum sales

• Why “midpoint” forecasts quietly imply certainty—and disappoint about half the time

• How forecast distributions allow CROs to communicate expected sales and odds instead

• How focusing on an optimized deal portfolio can substantially improve sales productivity

  
  

Forecasting shouldn’t be about precision—it should be about utility. When forecasts explicitly show which levers change the expected outcome and risks, CROs can have better conversations with executive leadership, CEOs, and boards. Trust improves.

Instead of hiding risk and streamlining old-school rollups, forecasting applications should focus on quantifying risk and showing you how to sell more. Then salespeople can do what you hired them to do—just sell.

If your forecasting feels like too much time spent building up a number, instead of improving it, this perspective may resonate.

Read the full CIO Review feature: Why Traditional Sales Forecasting Fails — and What Forward-Thinking Leaders Are Doing Instead