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How to Do Monte Carlo Simulations in Excel (and why you'd want to do that)

Updated: Jun 28

Monte Carlo simulations are the key to understanding your odds of beating your goal. You can easily run Monte Carlo simulations on your open pipeline in Excel.

Here's how.



The process:

  1. Lay out your data as shown in the example below

  2. Create this one simple formula below in cell C3

  3. Copy it down to the bottom of your data.

  4. Sum the column at the top.

  5. Replicate the column to the right (at least 1000 times)

  6. Select the top row (the sum of each column)

  7. Insert a histogram (Insert >> Chart >> Histogram)

  8. Voila!


You'll get an instant histogram showing the relative likelihoods of different outcomes.


Caveats

  1. Simulations produce an estimated forecast distribution based on the probabilities (and amounts) you provide.

  2. Your results will only be as good as your estimated deal probabilities

  3. To get the best results, you need to have realistic estimates of deal probabilities.

  4. Probability is defined as the likelihood of a deal to be won by some date. If all of the deal probabilities are based on a common end date, then you have the distribution of outcomes for that pipeline by that end date.

  5. This approach provides a distribution for deals in your pipeline. It does not estimate the effects of new pipeline creation.

  6. You can get great estimates of probabilities and a more nuanced model incorporating prospective new pipeline creation from Funnelcast. Contact us for more info.


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